Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.89452e-06          42          55           3           0           0        B1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.80462e-06          31          68           1           0           0        B1.9
GOES Xray  =   1.11212e-08          42          58           0           0           0        B1.2
est. ISN   =            17          17          63          17           3           0        B2.9
 
together                            33.00       61.00        5.25        0.75        0.00     B1.5
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)