Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.17594e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.85850e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   4.66636e-08           9          83           7           1           0        B5.3
est. ISN   =            12          21          58          19           2           0        B2.9
 
together                            36.50       55.25        7.50        0.75        0.00     B1.9
 
realized                                                                                      B3.2