Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   7.87530e-07          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.19022e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   2.16988e-08          16          84           0           0           0        B2.4
est. ISN   =            16          16          65          16           3           0        B2.7
 
together                            37.00       57.25        5.00        0.75        0.00     B1.5
 
realized                                                                                      B3.0