Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.67526e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.89501e-06          32          66           1           1           0        B1.9
GOES Xray  =   8.30444e-09          56          44           0           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
est. ISN   =             8          50          41           9           0           0        B1.0
 
together                            48.25       48.75        2.75        0.25        0.00     B1.0
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)