Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.15453e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.14167e-06          41          57           2           0           0        B1.3
GOES Xray  =   7.10305e-08           7          67          26           0           0        B7.4
est. ISN   =            13          20          62          17           1           0        B2.7
 
together                            30.75       57.50       11.50        0.25        0.00     B2.4
 
realized                                                                                      B5.6