Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.94713e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.61094e-06          51          47           2           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   7.43917e-08           7          64          27           2           0        B7.9
est. ISN   =            14          18          64          16           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            32.75       54.75       11.50        1.00        0.00     B2.2
 
realized                                                                                      B8.3