Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   6.05207e-07          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   8.75150e-07          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   1.46363e-08          25          75           0           0           0        B1.5
est. ISN   =            14          18          64          16           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            39.75       54.75        5.00        0.50        0.00     B1.3
 
realized                                                                                      B1.2