Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.14531e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.67077e-06          48          50           2           0           0        B1.0
GOES Xray  =   8.04904e-08           6          60          31           3           0        B8.1
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            34.50       51.25       13.00        1.25        0.00     B2.1
 
realized                                                                                      B8.4