Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.28469e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.59257e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   1.58383e-08          19          81           0           0           0        B1.8
est. ISN   =            15          19          62          17           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            38.50       55.75        5.25        0.50        0.00     B1.4
 
realized                                                                                      B1.7