Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.32057e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.39480e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   4.68909e-08           9          83           7           1           0        B5.3
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            38.50       53.50        7.25        0.75        0.00     B1.8
 
realized                                                                                      B3.8