Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.14683e-05          10          71          19           0           0        B5.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.07827e-05          10          77          13           0           0        B5.2
GOES Xray  =   9.56076e-08           1          31          68           0           0        C1.2
est. ISN   =            21          12          52          33           3           0        B6.5
 
together                             8.00       58.00       33.25        0.75        0.00     B7.0
 
realized                                                                                      M1.1