Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.90296e-05           4          38          55           3           0        C1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.10498e-05           4          23          68           5           0        C1.6
GOES Xray  =   1.45939e-07           1           4          81          14           0        C2.7
est. ISN   =            33           7          48          32          13           0        B8.9
 
together                             4.00       28.25       59.00        8.75        0.00     C1.5
 
realized                                                                                      C1.9