Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.27428e-06          38          60           2           0           0        B1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.29536e-06          16          78           5           1           0        B3.3
GOES Xray  =   1.11221e-07           2          20          74           4           0        C1.5
est. ISN   =            26           7          53          34           6           0        B6.7
 
together                            15.75       52.75       28.75        2.75        0.00     B4.4
 
realized                                                                                      C1.5