Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.32062e-05          13          64          21           2           0        B6.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.70021e-05           4          44          47           5           0        C1.0
GOES Xray  =   1.94540e-07           1           1          75          22           1        C4.0
est. ISN   =            20          13          57          27           3           0        B4.6
 
together                             7.50       41.75       42.50        8.00        0.25     C1.0
 
realized                                                                                      C2.4