Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.93671e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.46276e-06          36          63           1           0           0        B1.5
GOES Xray  =   6.93763e-08           7          66          27           0           0        B7.1
est. ISN   =            32           4          46          38          12           0        C1.0
 
together                            25.50       54.75       16.75        3.00        0.00     B3.9
 
realized                                                                                      B6.9