Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.88599e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.91500e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   3.22610e-08          12          87           1           0           0        B3.4
est. ISN   =            32           4          46          38          12           0        C1.0
 
together                            33.00       53.25       10.75        3.00        0.00     B2.5
 
realized                                                                                      B3.3