Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.74630e-05           3          45          49           3           0        C1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.89868e-05           5          28          62           5           0        C1.3
GOES Xray  =   1.73461e-07           1           5          81          13           0        C3.2
est. ISN   =             7          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            15.00       29.50       50.25        5.25        0.00     C1.2
 
realized                                                                                      M3.9