Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.20299e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.71979e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   3.09471e-08          12          87           1           0           0        B3.3
est. ISN   =            19          15          59          23           3           0        B3.6
 
together                            35.75       56.50        7.00        0.75        0.00     B1.9
 
realized                                                                                      B1.9