Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.47261e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.36733e-06          36          63           1           0           0        B1.5
GOES Xray  =   6.73332e-08           6          68          25           1           0        B7.0
est. ISN   =            18          18          59          20           3           0        B3.2
 
together                            28.75       58.50       11.75        1.00        0.00     B2.7
 
realized                                                                                      B3.4