Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.01950e-06          40          57           3           0           0        B1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   8.32453e-06          17          76           7           0           0        B3.2
GOES Xray  =   9.00969e-08           1          40          56           3           0        C1.2
est. ISN   =            19          15          59          23           3           0        B3.6
 
together                            18.25       58.00       22.25        1.50        0.00     B4.0
 
realized                                                                                      C1.5