Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.20281e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.03844e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   4.03063e-08           8          89           3           0           0        B4.4
est. ISN   =            16          16          65          16           3           0        B2.7
 
together                            35.00       58.50        5.75        0.75        0.00     B1.9
 
realized                                                                                      B3.5