Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.78820e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.00194e-06          59          38           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   8.24469e-08           5          54          38           3           0        B8.5
est. ISN   =            15          19          62          17           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            34.50       49.50       14.75        1.25        0.00     B2.1
 
realized                                                                                      B4.9