Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.48337e-05           1          14          79           6           0        C2.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.91350e-05           2           6          81          10           1        C2.6
GOES Xray  =   2.95622e-07           1           0          30          56          13        M1.8
est. ISN   =            11          22          58          18           2           0        B2.8
 
together                             6.00       19.75       52.25       18.50        3.50     C2.5
 
realized                                                                                      M1.4