Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.42888e-05          14          57          27           2           0        B7.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.65128e-05           5          46          43           6           0        B9.9
GOES Xray  =   1.44235e-07           1           5          81          13           0        C2.6
est. ISN   =            16          16          65          16           3           0        B2.7
 
together                             9.00       43.25       41.75        6.00        0.00     B9.6
 
realized                                                                                      M1.1