Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.79627e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.04020e-06          59          39           2           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   6.28300e-08           7          71          21           1           0        B6.7
est. ISN   =            17          17          63          17           3           0        B2.9
 
together                            34.50       54.25       10.25        1.00        0.00     B2.2
 
realized                                                                                      B4.8