Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   9.99437e-06          11          79           9           1           0        B4.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.47540e-05           4          57          37           2           0        B8.7
GOES Xray  =   1.58314e-07           1           5          79          15           0        C3.1
est. ISN   =            22           8          54          34           4           0        B6.5
 
together                             5.75       49.00       39.75        5.50        0.00     B8.9
 
realized                                                                                      C3.8