Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.10219e-05           5          31          59           5           0        C1.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.30054e-05           3          19          73           5           0        C1.8
GOES Xray  =   1.90847e-07           1           2          76          19           2        C4.1
est. ISN   =            25           7          55          32           6           0        B6.5
 
together                             3.75       27.00       60.00        8.75        0.50     C1.7
 
realized                                                                                      C7.6