Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.03773e-05           1           3          81          15           0        C3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.16987e-05           1           3          73          23           0        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   2.10635e-07           1           0          69          26           4        C5.0
est. ISN   =             8          50          41           9           0           0        B1.0
 
together                            13.25       11.75       58.00       16.00        1.00     C3.0
 
realized                                                                                      C1.7