Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.60047e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.73976e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   5.30360e-08           9          79          11           1           0        B5.7
est. ISN   =            20          13          57          27           3           0        B4.6
 
together                            34.50       54.00       10.50        1.00        0.00     B2.4
 
realized                                                                                      B4.5