Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.85884e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.29504e-06          53          45           2           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   2.36484e-08          17          83           0           0           0        B2.6
est. ISN   =            23           8          55          31           6           0        B6.5
 
together                            33.25       56.75        8.50        1.50        0.00     B2.0
 
realized                                                                                      B1.6