Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.70922e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.47641e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   2.50976e-08          15          85           0           0           0        B2.7
est. ISN   =            30           5          46          41           8           0        B9.9
 
together                            34.00       52.75       11.25        2.00        0.00     B2.3
 
realized                                                                                      B3.5