Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.51639e-06          51          46           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.93344e-06          19          76           4           1           0        B3.1
GOES Xray  =   1.09476e-07           2          24          71           3           0        C1.5
est. ISN   =            16          16          65          16           3           0        B2.7
 
together                            22.00       52.75       23.50        1.75        0.00     B3.4
 
realized                                                                                      C1.1