Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.72011e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.15365e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   4.61641e-08           9          85           5           1           0        B5.2
est. ISN   =             8          50          41           9           0           0        B1.0
 
together                            43.75       51.50        4.50        0.25        0.00     B1.4
 
realized                                                                                      B7.8