Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.52107e-05           1          17          76           6           0        C2.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.32587e-05           2           2          75          21           0        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   1.92901e-07           1           1          77          20           1        C4.0
est. ISN   =             7          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            13.25       15.50       59.25       11.75        0.25     C2.5
 
realized                                                                                      C3.4