Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.73893e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.42939e-06          36          63           1           0           0        B1.5
GOES Xray  =   4.13024e-08           8          89           3           0           0        B4.5
est. ISN   =             7          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            37.50       59.00        3.50        0.00        0.00     B1.8
 
realized                                                                                      B2.8