Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   7.10705e-06          29          68           3           0           0        B2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.03599e-05          11          77          12           0           0        B5.2
GOES Xray  =   1.30628e-07           1          11          78          10           0        C2.1
est. ISN   =            14          18          64          16           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            14.50       55.25       27.25        3.00        0.00     B5.6
 
realized                                                                                      C1.7