Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.05156e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.16193e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   3.91692e-08           8          89           3           0           0        B4.4
est. ISN   =            11          22          58          18           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            36.50       56.75        6.25        0.50        0.00     B1.8
 
realized                                                                                      B3.9