Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.87115e-05           5          42          50           3           0        C1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.31277e-05           3          17          75           5           0        C1.8
GOES Xray  =   1.59680e-07           1           7          78          14           0        C3.1
est. ISN   =            30           5          46          41           8           0        B9.9
 
together                             3.25       28.25       61.00        7.50        0.00     C1.6
 
realized                                                                                      M1.5