Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   7.48744e-06          29          68           3           0           0        B3.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.01759e-05          13          75          12           0           0        B4.9
GOES Xray  =   1.20097e-07           1          13          81           5           0        C1.7
est. ISN   =            24           8          54          33           5           0        B6.5
 
together                            12.75       52.50       32.25        2.50        0.00     B6.0
 
realized                                                                                      C1.7