Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.93837e-06          39          58           3           0           0        B1.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.81358e-06          17          75           7           1           0        B3.1
GOES Xray  =   1.04115e-07           1          26          70           3           0        C1.5
est. ISN   =            28           7          54          32           7           0        B6.3
 
together                            16.00       53.25       28.00        2.75        0.00     B4.4
 
realized                                                                                      C1.2