Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.94316e-06          35          63           2           0           0        B1.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   8.67256e-06          15          77           8           0           0        B3.6
GOES Xray  =   9.69563e-08           1          31          67           1           0        C1.3
est. ISN   =            14          18          64          16           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            17.25       58.75       23.25        0.75        0.00     B4.0
 
realized                                                                                      B6.8