Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.61077e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.91043e-06          19          76           4           1           0        B2.8
GOES Xray  =   3.79030e-08          11          87           2           0           0        B4.0
est. ISN   =            11          22          58          18           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            26.75       66.25        6.25        0.75        0.00     B2.7
 
realized                                                                                      B3.3