Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.51535e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.81298e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   3.74699e-08          12          87           1           0           0        B4.0
est. ISN   =            16          16          65          16           3           0        B2.7
 
together                            36.00       58.00        5.25        0.75        0.00     B1.8
 
realized                                                                                      B2.1