Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.15679e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.26694e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   6.02465e-08           6          74          19           1           0        B6.5
est. ISN   =            10          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                            37.75       51.25       10.25        0.75        0.00     B1.9
 
realized                                                                                      B6.7