Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.72296e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.99662e-06          26          72           1           1           0        B2.1
GOES Xray  =   7.83024e-08           6          62          29           3           0        B8.1
est. ISN   =            27           6          52          35           7           0        B7.4
 
together                            23.25       57.50       16.50        2.75        0.00     B3.9
 
realized                                                                                      B7.8