Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.72234e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.31988e-06          37          62           1           0           0        B1.4
GOES Xray  =   8.22252e-08           5          54          38           3           0        B8.5
est. ISN   =            27           6          52          35           7           0        B7.4
 
together                            25.75       53.00       18.75        2.50        0.00     B3.7
 
realized                                                                                      B9.7