Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.14915e-05          10          71          19           0           0        B5.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.62798e-05           5          47          42           6           0        B9.9
GOES Xray  =   2.42057e-07           1           0          40          52           7        M1.2
est. ISN   =            26           7          53          34           6           0        B6.7
 
together                             5.50       43.00       33.75       16.00        1.75     C1.0
 
realized                                                                                      C1.2