Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.29609e-06          38          60           2           0           0        B1.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   9.03833e-06          16          77           7           0           0        B3.6
GOES Xray  =   9.58530e-08           1          30          69           0           0        C1.3
est. ISN   =            25           7          55          32           6           0        B6.5
 
together                            15.25       55.75       27.50        1.50        0.00     B4.6
 
realized                                                                                      C1.0