Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   2.62183e-05           1          14          79           6           0        C2.5
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.86284e-05           2           6          84           7           1        C2.9
GOES Xray  =   1.80033e-07           1           2          82          14           1        C3.7
est. ISN   =            17          17          63          17           3           0        B2.9
 
together                             5.00       21.50       65.50        7.50        0.50     C2.3
 
realized                                                                                      C1.5