Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.11175e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   5.63302e-06          34          65           1           0           0        B1.6
GOES Xray  =   1.08042e-07           2          25          70           3           0        C1.5
est. ISN   =            13          20          62          17           1           0        B2.7
 
together                            27.75       49.00       22.25        1.00        0.00     B2.7
 
realized                                                                                      B9.7